DETROIT — A $7.89 price tag is a bargain for just about anything these days.
“Ford’s stock is at its lowest point since the Great Recession,” said John McElroy, host of “Autoline After Hours” and a longtime automotive analyst. “While this would normally put enormous pressure on CEO Jim Hackett, his recent reshuffling of the management ranks, pushing out Joe Hinrichs and promoting Jim Farley to COO, has bought him time with the board of directors. Hackett is very lucky. The Ford board seems to have the patience of Job.”
“Our underlying business is strong. We’ve got exciting series of new products we’re introducing this year. And I think we’re establishing ourselves as a leader in the emerging era of smart vehicles _ including new forms of propulsion and connectivity,” he said. “We’re optimistic. We’re focused, and nobody’s got higher expectations for Ford than we do.”
Then vs. now
Ford replaced CEO Mark Fields with Hackett in May 2017 after a dismal stock performance. And the value of Ford stock has continued to wither. Ford hovers around $8 a share. Crosstown rival General Motors has a stock price near $35.
Fields retired at age 56 from Ford after three years as CEO. On the Friday before the company released news of his departure on May 22, 2017, Ford stock closed at $10.87. Its price had declined 36% on Fields’ watch, nearly three times worse than GM during the same period, according to MarketWatch.
“It’s all about investor frustration with the stock performance,” Efraim Levy, then an analyst with CFRA Research, told MarketWatch upon news of Fields’ exit.
Ford’s latest stock dip occurs more than two weeks after reporting a grim $47 million in net profit in 2019 for the global company, down from $3.7 billion a year earlier. Meanwhile, GM showed a $2.41 billion net profit in 2019.
‘Patience wearing thin’
“The stock has been on a wild ride and investors’ patience does seem to be wearing thin,” said David Kudla, CEO and chief investment strategist at Mainstay Capital Management, a Grand Blanc investment adviser who manages $2.7 billion in assets. Many of Mainstay’s clients are Ford employees.
He noted, “Hackett’s massive restructuring plan was needed to address overhead, however, it remains to be seen whether it went far enough. The pressure is on this year to recover and show meaningful progress.”
Challenges aren’t specific to Ford but they may be hitting Ford harder than its competitors, says market economist Jon Gabrielsen, who advises automakers and auto suppliers.
“Ford is facing tremendous downside market and financial risk on so many fronts,” he said. “Its restructuring plans have not yielded the benefits as soon as promised and expected, and may never do so. Its European and South American operations are perennial losers and have not improved. And its China business has gone from too late of an entry with too little market share, to less than half of that. The only strong business that Ford has is North America, and even then it is only in U.S. and Canada since its Mexico presence has fallen to near irrelevancy.”
“Even in North America, it has continued to have increasing warranty and recall costs and a looming potential lawsuit of unknown magnitude for the (defective) DPS6 transmission from the Focus and Fiesta,” Gabrielsen said. “And the profits from its financing operations are totally dependent on the success of the auto businesses.”
Marick Masters, a Wayne State University business professor, said the stock dip is “deja vu” to some extent. He pointed to a July 1, 2012, headline that said Ford at that time “reached” a “52-week low of $9.56” and said “Ford’s challenges are structurally and strategically deep.
“Its competitive strategy leaves too much in doubt and fails to show how to break through the vortex of forces buffeting the industry,” Masters said. Hackett “is under enormous pressure to improve operational and financial performance while articulating a clear pathway to success.”
Clearly, the Ford family is feeling fine for now or they would take action, said Marcus Hudson, executive director of the Calderone Advisory Group based in Birmingham, which advises suppliers in the automotive industry.
“The significant action was putting Farley in the COO position. I have no doubt that was Hackett’s way of showing the family he’s addressing the performance issues that have hampered the company of late,” said Hudson, who worked in revenue management at Ford more than a decade ago. “The family is not shy about getting rid of people when they’re unhappy with them. And the family doesn’t take its cues from Wall Street.”
By Phoebe Wall Howard
Detroit Free Press